The dream vacation of a warm sun shining on clear waters while the wind sways the palm leaves above you and your umbrella-wielding drink has long been a staple for every nine-to-fiver on both sides of the Atlantic. Equipped with their two weeks worth of vacation, obnoxiously colored clothing and overstuffed bags and wallets, many a Yankee and Brit has boarded a plane headed for a warmer climate. And many of those planes have landed in the Caribbean.

Over the past 30 years, the Caribbean has seen a major jump in tourism and in dollars earned from this lucrative trade. As the dollar climbed ever higher, chased closely by the pound and euro, more and more people flocked to the sun-swept shores of the Caribbean Islands as well as other tropical destinations worldwide. But now the dollar is plummeting, the pound is suffering and the word ‘economy’ is almost constantly tied to the term recession whenever, and wherever, it is mentioned. Shock waves from this economic upheaval have been felt in most every industry worldwide. So as the recession continues, the question becomes – are people still dreaming of a sunny shore? And if so, are they pursuing those dreams with their hard-earned money?

As with most topics, the answer depends on whom you ask. There seems to be two schools of thought on this topic so today we will explore both. The first school of thought seems to be the more logical of the two. It serves to reason that travel and tourism is not a necessity of life and therefore money spent on travel is considered expendable income. And in a time of recession the amount of expendable income is significantly lowered thus people begin to trim the fat and use a larger percentage of their overall income on necessities such as food and clothing.

This logical “fun vs. food” argument is supported by many experts worldwide who point out that the first thing to go from a household budget will be the extravagances of travel. Dr. Alan Greenspan supported this idea when he traveled to the Caribbean Tourism Organization’s First Annual Caribbean Tourism Summit in the summer of 2008. He pointed out that in the short term tourism is linked closely with the global economy and that there is no escaping this fact. He went on to bring up another issue that is unique to the travel industry: the cost of fuel for airline companies. The ever-increasing cost of oil has prevented many airlines from cutting their costs as they might have done in the past to ease the stress of economic upheaval. With an increase in travel cost and a decrease in expendable income, these experts predict a definite and painful slow down for the tourism industry as early as this spring.

What all these naysayers can’t account for, however, is the apparent lack of proof that this condition of “fun vs. food” is occurring.  Many global tourism companies reported greater gains last fall, and while there have not been many earnings reports released in 2009, 2008 was a positive year for many packaged tourism companies including Europe’s two largest companies, TUI Travel and Thomas Cook. These companies were so certain of their business that Peter Long, TUI’s chief executive, even went as far as to proclaim tourism as “recession proof.” While this might be slightly overstating the positive side of the business, there does seem to be solid proof that tourism and travel are seldom the first on the chopping block when economic times get hard. Several analysts have pointed out that tourism survived major blows after the September 11 attacks in 2001 as well as the Tsunami in 2004 and an increased awareness of SARS disease. By all current signs, it appears that people do and will continue to pursue those dream destinations.

But even the most hopeful of outlooks has to be realistic at some point. Even if people do continue to travel, it is very likely that how they travel and where they travel will be significantly different than in years past. Most experts predict that people will stay closer to home or be more selective when choosing a destination. The budget traveler is now the most important and most prolific traveler on the market. As the demand for luxury decreases, those business and destinations that will stay afloat are those that can convert their image or update their image to that of a “good value” destination or a budget location.

The growing importance of strategic marketing and business adaptation has also increased the awareness of structural weaknesses at the regional level. The Caribbean tourism industry was developed without much thought or organization at the government level. The destination was so perfect and the climate so ideal that marketing and business structure was almost not needed and certainly neglected. For almost 30 years, the regional governments have done little besides levy taxes and increase fees for visitors. While other destinations have laid out airline plans to increase ease of travel between islands and multiple destinations, the Caribbean has failed to pursue such efforts. Even regional marketing, which will be direly needed as travelers ’shop around’ for the best deals, has been neglected.

There are several businessmen sounding the alarm and asking for changes. Among them is Ralph Taylor, the current chairman of the Barbados Tourism Authority. In June 2008, Mr. Taylor addressed these issues during a speech and beseeched regional governments to acknowledge the importance of tourism to the region by developing new and aggressive strategies for this industry. He supports using a regional marketing fund created cooperatively by the governments and the industry. Other issues that must be faced are the need to develop new airline carriers in the US and Europe as well as creating a hub for transportation within the Caribbean. Relying on the old carriers and systems simply will no longer be enough. A frightening example of this is American Airlines’ announcement in 2008 to significantly cut the number of flights they currently offer. This is upsetting because American currently provides almost 60 percent of all visitors to the Caribbean. Action is needed and it is needed now. By integrating timetables, organizing airline options and updating current systems, the Caribbean can continue to be a desirable destination for those in the Northern Hemisphere.

The tourist industry has its work cut out for it in 2009. Will, as some predict, the tourism trade drop in coming months? Or will it find new and unique ways to adapt to an ever-changing and increasingly volatile market? For countries in Caribbean and other tourist-based economies these questions are as vital as any facing the financial or housing markets but with the correct attention and support by government officials and industry heads, these dream destinations can avoid the nightmarish consequences of a declining economy which could leave the tourist trade to wither in that warm tropical sun.

Photo credit to loimere

Charlsea Ewing · Phnom Penh, Cambodia

Charlsea Ewing is a traveling gypsy in search of a good story. Originally from Texas, she has pursued her culture shock addiction across nine countries and has recently moved to Cambodia to work with farmers. When she’s not working on a farm or traveling, she enjoys a good book, great conversation and learning as much about as many cultures as possible.

charlsea@antillean.org